From meta-studies to modeling : using synthesis knowledge to build broadly applicable process-based land change models

Nicholas R. Magliocca (1) , Jasper van Vliet (2) , Calum Brown (3) , Tom P. Evans (4) , Thomas Houet (5) , Peter Messerli (6) , Joseph P. Messina (7) , Kimberly Nicholas (8) , Christine Ornetsmuller (2) , Julian Sagebiel (9) , Vanessa Schweizer (10) , Peter Verburg (11) , Qiangyi Yu (12)

1 SESYNC
2 Institute for Environmental Studies
3 School of Geosciences [Edinburgh]
4 Indiana University [Bloomington]
5 GEODE - Géographie de l'environnement
6 CDE - Centre for Development and Environment [Bern]
7 Michigan State University [East Lansing]
8 LUCSUS - Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies
9 Institute for Ecological Economy Reserach
10 University of Waterloo [Waterloo]
11 Department of Environmental Sciences - Land Dynamics Group
12 Institute of Agricultural Resources and regional Planning

This paper explores how meta-studies can support the development of process-based land change models (LCMs) that can be applied across locations and scales. We describe a multi-step framework for model development and provide descriptions and examples of how meta-studies can be used in each step. We conclude that meta-studies best support the conceptualization and experimentation phases of the model development cycle, but cannot typically provide full model parameterizations. Moreover, meta-studies are particularly useful for developing agent-based LCMs that can be applied across a wide range of contexts, locations, and/or scales, because meta-studies provide both quantitative and qualitative data needed to derive agent behaviors more readily than from case study or aggregate data sources alone. Recent land change synthesis studies provide sufficient topical breadth and depth to support the development of broadly applicable process-based LCMs, as well as the potential to accelerate the production of generalized knowledge through model-driven synthesis.

Mots clés: Land use change; model development; meta-analysis; synthesis; model validation; agent-based models

Domaines: Géographie; Environnement et Société

Nicholas R. Magliocca, Jasper van Vliet, Calum Brown, Tom P. Evans, Thomas Houet, et al.. From meta-studies to modeling : using synthesis knowledge to build broadly applicable process-based land change models. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2015, 72, pp.10-20. ⟨10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.06.009⟩. ⟨hal-01194535⟩