Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios : the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Nicolas Maestripieri (1) , Thomas Houet (1) , Martin Paegelow (1) , Gilles Selleron (1) , Dario Toro Balbontin (1, 2) , Nicolas Saez Villalobos (3)

1 GEODE - Géographie de l'environnement
2 Centro nacional de conservacion y restauracion
3 Universidad de los lagos

Accounting for spatial issues (spatially explicit simulation, geographical amenities and advantages of land use 10 and cover changes, etc.) to build prospective scenarios is a crucial issue for better assessment of possible impacts on the environment. Such spatialized scenarios and their implications allow societies to reduce the uncertainty of the future by exploring various strategies for land use changes. Despite the wide diversity in existing scenario-building techniques, two different approaches can be distinguished (exploratory vs. normative) for their methodological implications. The originality in this study comes from the use of a relevant exploratory 15 (dynamic) approach to map normative scenarios which, in most cases, are represented throughout the combination of narratives and synchronic land use and cover maps. The objective of the article is to apply this dynamic exploratory simulation approach to spatialize normative scenarios within the framework of forest management in southern Chile. In the results, two contrasting images of the future are compared, with the preservation of native forests on one hand and the spread of exotic timber plantations on the other.

Mots clés: southern Chile; Modeling; exploratory approach; multicriteria evaluation; normative scenarios

Domaines: Géographie; Sylviculture, foresterie; Ingénierie de l'environnement

Nicolas Maestripieri, Thomas Houet, Martin Paegelow, Gilles Selleron, Dario Toro Balbontin, et al.. Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios : the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile. Futures, 2015, ⟨10.1016/j.futures.2015.10.013⟩. ⟨hal-01362857⟩