Effects of information quantity and quality on collective decisions in human groups

Abstract : In this thesis, we were interested in the impact of the quantity and quality of information ex- changed between individuals in a group on their collective performance in two very specific types of tasks. In a first series of experiments, subjects had to estimate quantities sequentially, and could revise their estimates after receiving the average estimate of other subjects as social information. We controlled this social information through virtual participants (which number we controlled) giving information (which value we controlled), unknowingly to the subjects. We showed that when subjects have little prior knowledge about a quantity to estimate, (the loga- rithms of) their estimates follow a Laplace distribution. Since the median is a good estimator of the center of a Laplace distribution, we defined collective performance as the proximity of the median (log) estimate to the true value. We found that after social influence, and when the information provided by the virtual agents is correct, the collective performance increases with the amount of information provided (fraction of virtual agents). We also analysed subjects' sensitivity to social influence, and found that it increases with the distance between personal estimate and social information. These analyses made it possible to define five behavioral traits: to keep one's opinion, to adopt that of others, to compromise, to amplify social information or to contradict it. Our results showed that the subjects who adopt the opinion of others are the ones who best improve their performance because they are able to benefit from the infor- mation provided by the virtual agents. We then used these analyses to construct and calibrate a model of collective estimation, which quantitatively reproduced the experimental results and predicted that a limited amount of incorrect information can counterbalance a cognitive bias that makes subjects underestimate quantities, and thus improve collective performance. Further experiments have validated this prediction. In a second series of experiments, groups of 22 pedestrians had to segregate into clusters of the same "color", without visual cue (the colors were unknown), after a short period of random walk. To help them accomplish their task, we used an information filtering system (analogous to a sensory device such as the retina), taking all the positions and colors of individuals in input, and returning an acoustic signal to the subjects (emitted by tags attached to their shoulders) when the majority of their k nearest neighbors was of a different color from theirs.
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Bertrand Jayles. Effects of information quantity and quality on collective decisions in human groups. Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability [physics.data-an]. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2017. English. ⟨NNT : 2017TOU30367⟩. ⟨tel-02009806⟩



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